How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 8 خرداد 1396 ، 03:37

نمره‌های آزمون میان ترم روش‌های مقدّماتی تحلیل جمعیّت

آزمون میان ترم روش‌های مقدّماتی تحلیل جمعیّت در تاریخ 23 اردیبهشت 1396 در ارزش 6 نمره و به صورت حذفی برگزار شد. منظور از حذفی این است که در آزمون پایان ترم، فصل‌ها و مطالبی که مشمول امتحان میان ترم بودند از آن‌ها سؤال نخواهد آمد. به اين ترتيب، آزمون پايان ترم در ارزش 14 نمره برگزار خواهد شد. ارزيابي نهايي بر مبناي نمره‌ي كسب‌شده در آزمون پايان ترم (از 14) و آزمون میان ترم (از 6 نمره) است. جدول زیر لیست نمره‌های ازمون میان ترم را بر حسب شماره‌ی دانشجویی نشان می‌دهد.

روش‌های مقدّماتی تحلیل جمعیّت

ردیف نام و نام خانوادگی نمره ردیف نام و نام خانوادگی نمره
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
يكشنبه ، 10 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 12:07

A Comparative Study of Childbearing Desires of Shia and Sunni Kurdish Women in Rural Areas of Kamyaran

Dr. Hatam HosseiniHatam Hosseini; Abbas Askari Nodoushan; Nahid Moradi


Any successful development and implementation of population policy in the field of fertility, is based on promotion of understanding and knowledge of the factors that affect women's fertility desires. The aim of this paper is to study and explain the childbearing desires of Sunni and Shia married Kurdish women in the range of reproductive age, living in rural areas of Kamyaran. Data were taken from the Kamyaran Fertility Survey (KFS) conducted on a sample of over 500 households in August 2014. Results showed that more childbearing desire is low among both religious groups. However, childbearing desires of Sunni women is a little more than Shia women. Among women who wished to have more children, a large proportion of them in both religious groups have stated that want to have one child more. This proportion among Sunni women (66.4%) is more than Shia counterparts (62%). The multivariate analysis showed that a combination of cultural, socio-economic and demographic characteristics have determinant and significant role in predicting the risk of women’s childbearing of both religious groups. Based on these results, government’s programs and policies to prevent the continuing of fertility decline or promoting it to replacement level should be in line with the demands and interests of women and families. Otherwise, the policies will face resistance and ultimately likely to fail. Journal of Woman and Family Studies (2016), 4(1): 63-84. Click here to get the paper.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 12 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 05:43

Global Population Projections: Is the UN Getting It Wrong?

Ron Duncan, Chris WilsonRon Duncan


This paper traces the major changes in the global population over the past half-century and examines the reasons for the very rapid growth, particularly in the poorer countries. It discusses why the projections of population growth by the body with responsibility for such projections have at times been misleading. The paper also discusses current projections, looking at recent trends in fertility rates and life expectancies and what these are likely to mean for global population growth and growth in particular regions and major countries. Of particular concern is that the UN appears to be underestimating the future decline in fertility rates, despite all evidence to the contrary. As a result the latest long-run global population projections appear to be much too high. The Australian National University. Click here to get the paper.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 4 خرداد 1396 ، 13:33

مجمع عمومی انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران تشکیل شد

دانشگاه تهران، سوّم خرداد 1396

بر اساس اطّلاع‌رسانی‌های قبلی انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در روز سوّم خرداد 1396، به منظور تعیین اعضای هیأت مدیره و بازرسان برای دوره‌ی 1399-1396، مجمع عمومی انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران در تالار شهید مطّهری دانشکده‌ی علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران با حضور اعضای انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، اعضای هیأت مدیره‌ی دوره‌ی قبل و نماینده‌ی وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فنآوری تشکیل شد. در حاشیه‌ی مجمع، سمینار «چشم‌انداز جمعیّتی، اشتغال و تولید در ایران» با مشارکت مؤسّسه‌ی مطالعات و مدیریّت جامع و تخصّصی جمعیّت کشور و انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران تشکیل شد و سخنران‌هایی از وزارت تعاون، کار و رفاه اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، مؤسّسه‌ی مطالعات جمعیّتی و دانشگاه شهید بهشتی به ارائه‌ی سخنرانی در موضوعات مرتبط با سمینار که به‌طور مشخّص بر تغییرات ساختار سنّی جمعیّت ایرات، اشتغال زنان و تولید متمرکز بود پرداختند. پس از سمینار، دکتر محمّد میرزائی، رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، به ارائه‌ی گزارشی از فعّالیت‌های انجمن در دوره‌ی قبل پرداختند و اظهار امیدواری کردند که با برگزاری انتخابات هیأت مدیره و انتخاب اعضای جدید، همچنان شاهد گسترش فعّالیت‌های انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران باشیم. دکتر رسول صادقی از اعضای هیأت مدیره و خزانه‌دار انجمن نیز از دیگران سخنرانان‌ این نشست بود. ایشان ضمن ارائه‌ی گزارش مالی، به فرآیند برگزاری انتخابات جدید و نحوه‌ی انتخاب اعضاء برای حاضرین پرداختند.

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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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