30 Years of Experience of the Two-Child Policy in Yicheng, China

Yu Qin, Fei Wang

More and more countries have been adopting population policies to increase birth rates, in order to deal with the growing challenges of aging (United Nations 2013). Following the recent trend, China, the most populous country in the world, ended its 35-year-long one-child policy and started to allow two children for each married couple from January 1, 2016. It is still too early to evaluate the new two-child policy directly. However, something may be learnt from what has happened in Yicheng in the past 30 years. Yicheng is a typical agricultural county in Shanxi province with a population that is over 80% rural (Figure 1). It first adopted the two-child policy in 1985, aiming to observe how fast birth rates would increase if fertility restrictions were ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
يكشنبه ، 2 ارديبهشت 1397 ، 04:10

Unintended Pregnancies in Hamedan, Iran: Levels and DeterminantsDr. Hatam Hosseini

Hatam Hosseini; Amir Erfani; Marzieh Nojomi


The recent limitation in the provision of publicly-funded family planning services in Iran has concerned stakeholders in reproductive health about the incidence of unintended pregnancies. This study used data from Hamedan Survey of Fertility, conducted in April-June 2015 among a representative sample of 3,000 married women aged 15-49 years living in the city of Hamedan (Iran), to estimate levels of unintended pregnancies and examine factors related to pregnancy intentions for the most recent birth, using multinomial logistic regression analyses. Results showed that 23% of pregnant women reported their pregnancy as unintended (17% mistimed and 6% unwanted). Moreover, unintended pregnancies in the five years preceding the survey were the result of failures of withdrawal (35%) and of modern contraceptive use (33%), along with contraceptive discontinuation (23%) and nonuse (9%). Multivariate results indicated that the risk of unintended pregnancy was lower among women reporting modern contraceptive failures and lower among those reporting contraceptive discontinuation and nonuse, compared with women experiencing withdrawal failures. The high incidence of unintended pregnancies among women experiencing contraceptive failures and discontinuation imply their high unmet need for contraceptive knowledge and counseling rather than for access to contraceptive methods. Women and Health, 2018 (Forthcoming).

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جمعه ، 4 اسفند 1396 ، 00:16

Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios

Krystof Zeman, Éva Beaujouan, Zuzanna Brzozowska, Tomáš SobotkaKrystof Zeman


The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels. We examine how the contribution of changing parity progression ratios varied across cohorts, countries, and broader regions in Europe, North America, Australia, and East Asia. We pay special attention to countries that reached very low completed cohort fertility, below 1.75 children per woman. Using population censuses and large-scale surveys for 32 low fertility countries, we decompose the change in completed cohort fertility among women born between 1940 and 1970. The decomposition method takes into account the sequential nature of childbearing as a chain of transitions from lower to higher parities. Among women born between 1940 and 1955, the fertility decline was mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to third and higher-order births. By contrast, among women born between 1955 and 1970, changes in fertility showed distinct regional patterns: in Central and Eastern Europe they were fuelled by falling second-birth rates, whereas in the German-speaking countries, Southern Europe, and East Asia decreases in first-birth rates played the major role. Pathways to low and very low fertility show distinct geographical patterns, which reflect the diversity of the cultural, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of low fertility countries. Our study highlights the importance of analysing parity-specific components of fertility in order to understand fertility change and variation. We demonstrate that similar low levels of completed cohort fertility can result from different combinations of parity-specific fertility rates. Demographic Research, 2018, 38(25): 652-682, DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.25. Click here to get the paper.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 9 بهمن 1396 ، 13:46

Comparative Study of the Determinants of Contraceptive Use in Urban and Rural Areas of Ilam District

Fereshteh Norouzi, Abbas Askari Nodoushan, Hatam HosseiniDr. Hatam Hosseini


Parallel to reduction in women’s childbearing desires and ideals, demand for using contraceptive methods increase. This paper aims to study of the prevalence of contraceptive use and its determinants among currently married women aged 15-49 living in urban and rural areas of Ilam district. Data are taken from a survey conducted on a sample of over 724 households in July 2014. The sampling method is a combination of multi-stage cluster sampling, random sampling and systematic random sampling methods. Results show that contraceptive use is widespread among women in rural and urban area. 81.8 percent of women in both rural and urban area use a contraceptive method. The use of modern contraceptive methods are more common among urban women than their counterparts in rural area (75.7 percent vs 70.7 percent). Multivariate analysis show that the number of children surviving and costs of contraception (18.8 percent), and the ideal number of children, the number of children surviving, and the costs of contraception (36.7 percent) are the main determinants of women’s risk of contraceptive use in urban and rural area respectively. According to findings it is reasonable to conclude that regarding widespread use of contraceptives and decreasing women’s childbearing desires and ideals, increasing costs of access to contraceptives and sociocultural costs of contraceptive use may lead to unintended pregnancies, induced abortion and maternal health threats. Journal of Woman and Family Studies, 5(2), DOI: 10.22051/jwfs.2017.5251.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
يكشنبه ، 10 دی 1396 ، 05:04

Muslim Minority of New Zealand in Global Context: Demographic Perspective

Yaghoob ForoutanYahoob Foroutan


This article focuses specifically on the population of Muslims in New Zealand, and highlights their demographic and socio-economic characteristics in a worldwide comparison. Globally, Islam is the fastest-growing religion and Muslims are the second largest religious group. In particular, the population of Muslim migrants in the multicultural and westerns societies is also remarkably growing fast. This also applies to the multicultural setting of New Zealand where have witnessed a substantially increasing growth of Muslim population during the recent decades. Holding a wide range of ethnic and religious groups from throughout the world as well as a variety of Muslims from different parts of the Islamic world, the multicultural field of this study serve as a unique human and cultural laboratory to approach properly the key research objectives of this analysis. The discussion is mainly based on the customized data of population census. This article specifically addresses the main demographic and socio-economic patterns and differentials associated with the population of Muslims in this multicultural context in a global comparison. Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, 2017, 37 (4): 511-519.

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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