How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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سه شنبه ، 27 تیر 1396 ، 06:58

The Effect of Contraception on Fertility: Is Sub-Saharan Africa Different?

John BongaartsJohn Bongaarts


Cross-sectional analyses of the relationship between contraceptive prevalence and the total fertility rate of developing countries show the expected strong negative correlation. However, this correlation is much weaker in Sub-Saharan Africa than in the developing world as a whole. This paper aims to explain the unexpected weak effect of contraceptive use on fertility in Sub-Sharan African countries by using different regression models to obtain unbiased effects. Using DHS survey data from 40 developing countries, the analysis consists of three steps: 1) examine the conventional cross-sectional TFR-CPR relationship by region at the time of the latest available surveys, 2) remove known technical flaws in the comparisons of fertility and contraceptive prevalence and 3) analyze multiple observations of TFR and CPR per country using pooled OLS and fixed effect regressions. The conventional cross-sectional analyses produce biased results in part because technical factors, in particular post-partum overlap, create a downward bias in the effect of prevalence on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, and more importantly, the cross-sectional regression OLS parameters have a bias due to confounding country fixed effects. Technical adjustments and the use of fixed effect models remove these biases. A rise in contraceptive prevalence among fecund women has the same average effect on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa as in other regions of the developing world. This study solves a long standing demographic puzzle and reassures policy makers and family planning program managers. Journal of Demographic Research (2017), 37(6): 129-146. Click here to get the paper.

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شنبه ، 24 تیر 1396 ، 07:59

Understanding Population Projections: Assumptions Behind the Numbers

Toshiko Kaneda, Donna Clifton, Jason Bremner


Policymakers and program planners rely on population projections to assess future demand for resources such as food, water, and energy, as well as services such as health and education. Projections alert policymakers and planners to major trends that may affect social and economic development and help them craft appropriate policies and programs. Many governments periodically make population projections for their own countries. In addition, organizations like the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) and the U.S. Census Bureau regularly prepare population projections for the world, regions, and individual countries. To develop these projections, demographers must make assumptions about future trends related to fertility, mortality, and migration. These assumptions, though based on research and expert opinions, are not certain. Population projections represent the future size of a population and the age and sex distribution if the assumptions used hold true. Many users of projections, however, may not be aware of exactly how they are made and do not consider the assumptions and limitations that underlie them. It is essential that users have a basic understanding of these assumptions and their plausibility before using them. Uncertainty in projections can result from a variety of sources, such as in the estimate of a current population size that serves as the "starting" population for projections. Time also increases uncertainty: Projections over longer periods are less certain than short-term projections because of the compounding effects of inaccuracies in assumptions over time. This brief aims to improve understanding of population projections by highlighting some of the key assumptions on which they are based. The brief examines and discusses the population projections produced by UNPD (hereafter referred to as UN projections) as an example. For more information and get this brief click here.

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شنبه ، 24 تیر 1396 ، 08:29

World Contraceptive Use 2017

World Contraceptive UseUnited Nations Population Division


Contraceptive prevalence and the unmet need for family planning are key indicators for measuring improvements in access to reproductive health. The data set, World Contraceptive Use 2017, includes country-specific estimates of these and other indicators, based on survey data available as of March 2017. This new data set was used to generate Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators 2017, providing model-based estimates and projections of family planning indicators. The Population Division produces a systematic and comprehensive series of annual, model-based estimates and projections of family planning indicators for the period from 1970 to 2030. Median estimates with 80 per cent and 95 per cent uncertainty intervals are provided for 185 countries or areas of the world, and for regions and development groups.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 9 تیر 1396 ، 08:15

Rapid: A Computer Programs for Examining the Socioeconomic Impacts of Population Growth

Ed AbelDemoSoft

The socioeconomic impacts model in Spectrum, known as RAPID, is a computer program for making projections of social and economic indicators for countries or regions.  The program requires information on various social and economic indicators, such as the labor force participation rate, the primary enrollment rate, and the number of nurses per capita, to name a few.  This information is then combined with population projections (created in the DemProj module of Spectrum) to project the future requirements of the indicators for as much as 50 years into the future.

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Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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